Unit economics of an influence campaign: do the math before launch

"Will it work or not" isn't a lottery — it's arithmetic. Before launching seeding or integrations, you can estimate whether the economics add up. Let's break down a simple model.

The base values

• Campaign budget — how much you invest.
• Reach — how many impressions you'll get (by CPM).
• Conversion to customer — what share of those who saw it will reach a purchase.
• Average check and margin — how much you earn per sale.
• LTV — how much a customer brings over their lifetime (with repeats).

Calculate along the chain

1. Budget ÷ CPM × 1000 = reach.
2. Reach × conversion = number of customers.
3. Budget ÷ number of customers = CAC (cost per customer).
4. Compare CAC with margin and LTV.

A rough example: a $1,400 budget, a $2 CPM → ~700,000 impressions. Conversion 0.1% → ~700 customers. CAC ≈ $2. If the margin per customer is higher — it adds up.

The main rule

Healthy economics: LTV / CAC ≥ 3. If a customer brings three times more than acquiring them costs — scale. If CAC is close to the margin — the campaign is in the red.

Where people go wrong

• They take an optimistic conversion — better to calculate by the pessimistic scenario.
• They forget LTV — a one-off sale may be in the red, but with repeats it's in the black.
• They count by last-click — undervaluing the reach effect (growth in branded searches, delayed sales).
• They don't budget for tests — first placements are pricier, then you optimize.

Why count in advance

The model doesn't give an exact forecast, but it shows at what conversion you're in profit. If profitability requires an unrealistic conversion — the campaign is rebuilt (offer, audience, format) before any money is spent.

Takeaway

Unit economics = reach → conversion → CAC → comparison with margin and LTV. Calculate before launch and by the pessimistic scenario. We help plan influence campaigns so the economics add up rather than being tested blindly on the budget.